中美高新技术产品贸易互补性实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Trade Compatibility of High-tech Products between China and the United States

文章利用联合国统计司的贸易统计数据,首先运用狭义和广义的贸易结合度从进口和出口两个角度测度了中美高新技术产品贸易的互补程度,然后运用贸易特化指数和附加显示性比较优势指数对互补类型和互补动因进行了进一步分析。结果表明:中美高新技术产品贸易的总体互补程度和各类产品的互补程度均较高,但呈现下降趋势;中美高新技术贸易的总体互补类型属于产业内互补,但不同产品差异明显;"入世"对中美高新技术产品的贸易互补程度及互补类型的影响较为明显;较高的进出口贸易结合度和国际竞争力的相对变化为中美高新技术产品贸易的发展奠定了坚实的基础,但未来的发展则充满了诸多的不确定性。

Based on the trade statistical data from United Nations Statistics Division, the paper firstly uses the general trade connection intensity as well as the narrow trade connection intensity to measure the compatible degree of high-tech products trade between China and the United States. Then it uses the index of trade specialization coefficient and additive revealed comparative advantage to make further analysis of the types of complementation and reasons. The results are as follows： firstly, the general trade connection intensity of total high-tech products and that of each category of high-tech products are comparatively high, but they tend to decline; secondly, the general complementary types of high-tech products trade between the two countries lie in intra-indnstry, but different products take on obvious difference; thirdly, China＇s joining World Trade Organization markedly influences the degree of high-tech products trade connection intensity as well as that of complementary types between China and US; finally, the comparatively high degree of trade connection intensity in export and import and the relative change of international competitiveness have laid the sound foundation for the development of high- tech product trade between China and U. S., but its future development is quite uncertain.