城市化对北京气温变化的贡献分析

Contribution of urbanization to change of air temperature in Beijing

采用均一化订正后的地面观测最高、最低气温资料及NCEP/DOE AM IP-ⅡReanalysis(R-2)再分析温度数据,分别研究分析了北京地区城市化引起的气温增暖影响。结果表明,城市化对北京地区气温的年/季节增暖影响非常显著,并且在整个时期的春、冬季气温升高尤为突出。发现由北京台站与背景气候的地面观测资料比较得到的城市热岛效应导致的增暖贡献过程主要发生在1960-2006年,其对年平均气温的增暖贡献为44.8%;而采用实测资料与R-2背景气候资料对比得到的城市化对气温增暖的影响主要表现在1979-2006年,其对地面年平均气温增暖贡献达73.5%,但利用同时期城-乡台站观测资料分离得到的热岛效应贡献水平则仅为34.4%。通过两种不同的思路对城市化影响进行分析,可以弥补传统的城市气候研究方法的不足,为对中国局地气候变化的人类活动影响的认识提供重要的参考依据。

Based on homogenized observed monthly mean daily maximum tures and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of and minimum land surface air tempera- Energy （NCEP/DOE） Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project（AMIP）-Ⅱ Reanalysis（R-2） data, urbanization effects on temperature change trends in Beijing were analyzed, respectively. Results indicate that urbanization has significant contribution to the annual/ seasonal temperature warming in Beijing, especially in spring and winter of the whole period. The contribution of urban heat island estimated by comparing observations of both Beijing and its background is mainly in the period of 1960-2006, which account for 44.8 percent of the local warming; And urbanization effect expressed as difference between observed and R-2 background has greater contribution to the temperature warming from 1979 to 2006, which is 73.5% of the local warming, but the result obtained by comparing observations of urban and rural stations for the same period is only 34.4%. To analyze the impact of urbanization on climate by comparison of two different estimating methods, may make up deficiency of traditional researching on urban climate, which is useful for our human to understand observed anthropogenic climate variabilities on regional scale in China.