中国旅游产业潜力评估模型及实证分析

The Assessment Model and Empirical Analysis of Chinese Tourism Development Potentialities

本文以旅游产业为研究对象,以旅游系统结构为切入点,分析旅游产业潜力的真正来源、结构及转化途径,通过计量方法具体回答目前旅游学界比较茫然的旅游业发展潜力空间大小这一战略性问题。研究结果表明,旅游产业具有巨大的发展潜力,短期来看,旅游需求潜力要小于旅游供给潜力,旅游产业潜力受到旅游需求不足的短板制约。未来很长一段时间还需要刺激需求来实现旅游业更大潜力的挖掘。本文从需求与供给结构研究旅游产业潜力的方法将为其它产业潜力的测算与评估提供一种借鉴。

Taking an ongoing industry ,tourism industry, as a studying object, this paper tried to find out the origin and structure of tourism development potentialities, then established the potentialities system and assessment model of tourism industry based on the substantial economics structure： demand and supply. At last, this paper assessed the space of tourism development with Chinese tourism development data. The results showed that, in the short run, the tourism industry has huge development potentialities and the demand potentialities are smaller. So , the government and firms should nake the measures to push the increase of tourism demand. In a word, the studying method of potentialities according to the basic structure of economics should become the reference for other industriest potentialities assessment.