中国的通货膨胀与产出缺口——来自2003-2008年的经验分析

Inflation and Output Gap in China——Based on Empirical Investigation between the Years 2003 and 2008

采用HP滤波法对2003-2008年的产出缺口进行估计,并使用OLS计量方法对通货膨胀与产出缺口的相关关系进行模型的估计。结果表明:通货膨胀与产出缺口存在正相关关系。通过进一步的分析得出以下政策建议:依赖技术进步和生产效率的提高来促进经济增长,提高潜在产出,同时通过控制资金的供应来调节实际产出,能较好地抑制通货膨胀,实现较高的经济增长率与较低的通货膨胀率。

Applying the method of HP - filter, this paper estimated the output gap between the years 2003 and 2008, and by the OLS method, it estimated the correlation between inflation and output gap. The results showed that there were positive correlations between inflation and output gap. And further analyses came to the following policy suggestions： the economic growth and potential output increase should be dependent on technology progress and production efficiency improvement; regulating the practical output by controlling capital supplies could better restrain the inflation, and achieve higher economic growth rate and lower inflation.