灰色理论模型在大气环境质量预测中的应用研究

An Application of Grey Theory Model in Prediction of Ambient Air Quality

根据厦门市环境保护局公布的20032007年厦门市大气环境中3种污染物（二氧化硫、二氧化氮、可吸入颗粒物）的监测值．通过灰色系统GM（1，1）残差修正模型预测了厦门市大气环境质量的变化趋势。结果表明，灰色系统GM（1，1）模型合理，要求数据较少。计算量适中，精度较高，相对误差为0．4％～7．7％，与环保部门公布的数据吻合程度较好。指出灰色GM（1，1）模型用于大气环境质量预测，符合系统的灰色特性，实用性好，预测结果与实际环境状况吻合;当GM（1，1）模型的预测结果精度不能满足要求时，可采用残差模型予以修正。

According to the monitoring data of air pollutants including sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and inhalable particulates in Xiamen in the period of 2003-07, a variation trend of the ambient air quality was forecast through remnant difference correction GM （1, 1） model with grey system to provide a basis for the air pollution control. Results of the theoretical prediction was quite in agreement with the observations with relative errors in the range 0.4% to 7.7%. It revealed that the grey system GM （1, 1） model for predicting air quality was practicable, and could be modified by remnant difference model when precision of the forecast did not meet requirements.