解决中国粮食潜在问题的政策及其效果的CGE模型分析

CGE Analysis on Effects of Food Policy of Potential Issues

目前，增加投入已成为中国粮食产量增长的最主要源泉，却忽视了全要素生产率（Total Factors Productivity，TFP）的增长贡献。随着中间投入品和生产要素价格的逐步上涨，粮食成本将被推高，进而影响粮食产品在国际市场上的竞争力并阻碍农民收入的增长。因此，在中国粮食产业现存的高成本、低效率和农民低收入等问题正日益成为政府部门和中外学者关注焦点的今天，探讨其分析框架和政策措施具有十分重要的现实意义。本文运用GTAP（Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库建立了一个适合分析中国粮食问题的可计算性一般均衡（Computable General Equilibrium，CGE）模型，分别从宏观和产业层面定量分析提高粮食产量和农民收入这两个目标所采用的政策措施的效果，以及模拟结果的相关政策含义。

Currently,increased use of inputs became a major source of growth in China＇s food sector. Especially,recent policies biased toward food production have stimulated input use rather than productivity growth in the food sector. If the cost of food production continues to rise,it will constrain growth in China＇s food production and weaken its competitiveness in world markets. If this occurs, farmers＇ income will further worsen. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of alternative policy options,focusing on improving food production and farmers＇ income. For this purpose, this paper makes use of GTAP database version 6.0 and constructs a food-focused computable general equilibrium （CGE） model that can be used to analyze the economy-wide impacts of changes in a set of alternative options for the operation of China＇s food sectors.