第22太阳周地磁活动峰值和时间的预计

PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAXIMUM AND PEAK TIME IN THE 22ND SOLAR CYCLE

本文讨论了从第13—22太阳周太阳和地磁周的特征.运用自激励门限自回归时间序列模型和最大熵谱原理自回归数学方法来模拟和预报地磁aa指数年均值峰值和时间.峰值时间是1993年秋天或1994年春天.地磁aa指数年均值峰值是26—29.第22地磁周是一个中等活动的周.

This paper discusses the character and differences of the solar cycle and geomagnetic cycle from the 13th to the 22nd solar cycles. The self-excitation threshold autoregressive time series model and autoregression method using maximum entropy spectrum are used to simulate and predict that the peak time of the annual average value of geomagnetic aa index is in the spring of 1994 or the Autumn of 1993. The maximum in geomagnetic annual average aa index is 26-29. The 22nd geomagnetic cycle is expected to be a middle active cycle.