晚稻细菌性条斑病流行趋势预测模型的研究

F A Study on the Forecasting Model of the PrevailingTrend of Xanthomonas Oryzae in Late Rice

本文在分析万安县１９８９～１９９４年晚稻细菌性条斑病发生的历史资料和相关气象资料的基础上，应用灰色关联度选择预报因子，根据模糊综合评判原理组建模型，预报晚稻细菌性条斑病的流行趋势，经回测符合率达１００％，并在１９９５年、１９９６年和１９９７年应用该模型指导万安县晚稻细菌性条斑病的防治，取得了显著的经济效益。

On the basis of analyzing the historical data of Xanthomonas oryzae in late rice and correlated meteorological data from 1989 to 1994 in Wan'an County, using the grey correlated degree to select forecasting factors, a model predicting the prevailing trend of X. oryzae in late rice was established by fuzzy comprehensive decision theory, its historical coincident rate reached 100% by verification. The model was applied to guide the control of X. oryzae in late rice in Wan'an county from 1995 to 1997, and had produced remarkable economic effect.