基于人的因素的平行航路碰撞风险模型

Parallel Route Collision Risk Model Based on Human Factor

航路飞行过程中管制员与飞行员是影响安全的主要因素。分析管制员和飞行员操作可靠性的影响因素,运用模糊综合评价方法量化管制员和飞行员飞行操作中的可靠性,并利用概率知识建立基于管制员和飞行员的可靠性平行航路碰撞风险模型,通过实例计算表明,该模型能很好地对平行航路碰撞风险进行评估,验证了模型的可行性、有效性。

Controller and pilot are main factors affecting safety in flight. Analyzed aspects influence to the reliability of the controller and pilot, reliability of controller and pilot in flight were quantized using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, subsequently established collision risk model based on the controller and pilot＇s collision risk model using the knowledge of probability, undergone the example computation, the result of example showed the model can be very good on parallel routes to assess the risk of collision, to verify the feasibility of the model, effectiveness.