基于马尔柯夫模型的红壤退化地水土流失动态变化预测研究

Prediction the Changes of Soil and Water Loss Dynamics of Red Soil Degradation Based on Markov Model

文章阐述了马尔柯夫模型在水土流失动态变化预测中的应用,并选取福建省长汀县为研究区,分别利用长汀县2000年和2007年的遥感影像图,在RS软件和GIS软件支持下,运用马尔柯夫模型预测了2014年该县的水土流失变化情况。研究发现:在2007-2014年,长汀县的水土流失趋势是流失面积和强度在一定程度上得到控制,总的水土流失面积缩小,强度降低,极强度和剧烈侵蚀不明显,生态环境得到好转。这一发现说明红壤退化地的水土流失正处在一种变化状态,预示着未来时期以长汀县为代表的红壤退化地人为干扰仍然是水土流失面积和强度变化的主要方面,红壤退化地的水土保持任务仍较艰巨。

This paper expounds the application of Markov prediction model to examine the change of soil and water loss dynamics. And in this paper, taking Changting County as the study field in red soil degradation, using the TM image in 2000 and 2007 respectively, with the support of RS and GIS, it obtained the circumstances of changes of soil and water loss in the two periods of time, and predicted the changes of soil and water loss dynamics in 2014 with the Markov prediction model. The result showed the trend of soil and water loss in changting county is, to a certain extent, under control. Furthermore, ecological environment is becoming improved during the period of 2007 to 2014, because the total loss area and intensity were being decreased, serious intensity of loss and acute loss was not obvious. And according to the analysis by using Markov prediction model, it indicated that the soil and water loss was changing. This implied that human activity is the main cause to change. So the soil and water conservation task in red soil degradation was still arduous.