基于多目标决策灰色关联投影法的水土保持生态修复生态效益动态评价

Ecological Benefit Evaluation on the Ecological Restoration of Soil and Water Conservation Based on Multi-criteria Decision Grey Relation Projection Method

科学评价水土保持生态修复效益对进一步完善生态修复模式具有重要意义。水土保持生态修复生态效益评价的对象实际上是区域生态环境系统,涉及自然、生态等多方面具有信息不确知性和不完全性的因素,实质上是一个灰色系统。基于灰色系统理论和矢量投影原理,建立了水土保持生态修复生态效益评价灰色关联投影模型。该模型将评价样本及各级标准视为矢量,分别向同一矢量(理想样本)进行投影,根据投影值的大小,确定样本所属的生态环境质量级别及样本间的优劣排序。利用地处沂蒙山区的国家水土保持生态修复试点工程山东省平邑县项目区的2002-2005年监测数据,通过建立生态效益评价指标体系,采用多目标决策灰色关联投影法,对水土保持生态修复的生态效益进行评价,结果与预期相一致。即研究区2005年生态效益的投影值为0.661 9,2002年的投影值0.593 1。研究表明:利用灰色关联投影模型进行水土保持生态修复效益动态评价是科学的、有效的,具有应用和推广价值。

Scientific evaluation on ecological restoration benefit of soil and water conservation was significant to further complete ecological restoration model. In fact, the objective of ecological benefits evaluation is a regional environmental system, which involved with multiple uncertain factors about nature and ecology, and it was a virtually grey system. A grey relation projection model for ecological restoration of soil and water conservation evaluation was established based on grey system theory and vector projection principle. In this model, evaluated samples and classified standards are treated as vectors, and projected on the same ideal sample. Then, evaluated samples are classified and arranged in the projective value. Based on the data support of national ecological restoration of soil and water conservation project in Pingyi County, Shandong province, evaluation index system of ecological benefits was established using muhi-criteria decision grey relation projection method to assess the ecological benefit. The result is in correspondence with expected condition, the projective value of ecological benefits was 0. 661 9 in 2005 and 0. 593 1 in 2002. The result showed that this model is scientific and effective for ecological restoration of soil and water conservation evaluation.