我国煤矿矿山医疗救护工作的情景分析

Scenario analysis of the collieries medical emergency work in China

在对我国煤矿矿山医疗救护工作进行定性与定量研究的基础上,运用情景分析的方法,识别了影响煤矿矿山医疗救护工作发展的8个关键事件:煤矿矿山医疗救护工作管理体制的建立、经费保障体系的建立与有效运转、政策的稳定性与落实程度、培训体系的建立与完善、管理信息系统建立与运转、煤矿矿山医疗救护机构的内部运作机制的完善、有序的煤矿矿山医疗救护工作激励机制、多部门支持机制的建立与运作。构筑了未来发展的3种情景:乐观情景、无突变情景和悲观情景,为进一步制定煤矿矿山医疗救护工作发展策略提供了依据。

On the basis of qualitative and quantitative surveys of the collieries medical emergency work in China and in light of some relevant data and literature, by the method of scenario analysis, 8 key events that affect the current development of the collieries medical emergency work in China were identified, which include：establishment of a management system, establishment of a fundraising and compensation system, stability and implementation of policies, establishment and perfection of a training system, establishment and operation of a management information system, perfection of the internal operating mechanism, establishment of an orderly prompting mechanism, and establishment of a mechanism of coordination with and support from various interrelated sections. Three scenarios of future development were constructed, viz. , scenarios of optimism, no sudden change and pessimism, which provide basis for formulating further strategies of sustainable collieries medical emergency development.