生命周期、年龄结构与家庭医疗支出三者关系研究

Research on the relationships among life-cycle,age-structure and family medical expenditure

本文以《中国营养与健康状况调查》的微观调查数据为基础,根据生命周期理论考察了收入和医疗支出在家庭不同时段的分布情况。发现了两个重要结论:其一,健康风险本身具有很强的不确定性,而且我国的经济处于快速发展时期,家庭难以通过长期的储蓄应对健康风险,必须依靠完善的社会医疗保险体系才能帮助家庭提高应对健康风险的能力;其二,中年人的医疗支出迅速增长,但是收入却不断下降,而中老年人口在我国总人口中的比重不断增加,因此中老年人面临的医疗支出压力最大。随着我国人口老龄化阶段的到来,家庭和社会都将面临更加沉重的医疗支出负担,因此目前的医疗改革应该更加关注老龄化的影响。

Based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey （CHNS） and life-cycle model theory, this paper analyses the distributing of income and medical expenditure in different age groups. The aim of this study is to know how households smooth their health risks in different period of their lives. There are two main conclusions： firstly, households can＇t smooth their health risks by savings in the long run, because of the uncertainty and rapid economic growth in China. As a result, national health insurance is necessary to help households deal with health risks. Sec- ondly, old people are faced with serious medical expenditure burden because of the rapid increase of medical expend- iture in old people, while the stepwise decrease of income in old people. As the increased aging population in the fu- ture, China is faced with more serious medical expenditure burden. Hence, the health care reform should pay more attention to the aging population.