用中国的菲利普斯曲线看适度从紧的宏观调控目标

The Moderately Tight Macro Controlling Goal Seen from the Chinese Philips Curve

本文通过对我国改革开放以来通货膨胀与经济增长关系的经验考察与理论分析，抛弃“理性预期”和“适应性预期”，提出并论证了带“调控周期性预期”的中国的菲利普斯曲线方程。由此对我国适度从紧的宏观调控目标展开计量分析，得出了这一目标从质上看非常科学，从量上看“九五”期间保持年均８％左右的经济增长率的计划指标偏低的结论。

fter making an empirical inspection and analysis of the relation between inflation and economical growth since China's reform and opening to the world,the author tries to advance and prove that the Philips equation of China which features “controlling cyclical expectancy”.Based on the equation,the author makes a quantitative analysis of China's moderately tight macro controlling goal and concludes the paper by pointing out that the goal is feasible viewed in the light of “quality”and the annual average economic growth rate being eight percent during the ninth five-year plan is a little lower viewed in the light of “quantity”.