次贷危机中日本货币政策效应实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Japanese Monetary policy in the Subprime Crisis

美国次贷危机带来了全球性的降息浪潮。日本虽然降息措施慢了一步,但随着实体经济的不断衰退,也采取了降低利率的货币政策,由此再一次进入了"零利率"时代。通过理论推导和Grange因果分析,可以得出结论:今后日本降息余地越来越小,而"零利率"政策对宏观经济的刺激作用有限。日本"零利率"政策的现实效应对欧美国家的货币政策的调整也具有重要的借鉴意义。

The U. S. subprime crisis preludes the global interest - rate cuts. Japan also follows this wave though being a bit late. The deteriorating real economy finally forces Japan into a new stage of ＂zero interest rate＂. Theoretical analysis and Granger causality tests show there remains little space for future interest cuts, and the ＂zero interest rate＂ policy has little effects on Japan＇s macro economy. The empirical evidences of this paper may have important implications for the monetary policy adjustments in other western countries.