维修保障系统效能评估的灰色-证据理论模型

Grey-Evidence Theory Model of Effectiveness Evaluation for Maintenance Support System

对装备维修保障系统效能作出科学、准确的评估是发现、改进系统不足,提高装备保障效能的一项重要依据。实际评估过程中由于各种不确定性因素的存在,通常不易得出准确的评估结论。针对当前评估方法在处理不确定信息方面的不足,提出一种基于灰色-证据理论的维修保障系统效能评估模型。在建立系统效能评估指标体系的基础上,首先通过专家法、实地调研法和仿真分析法获取系统效能的评估指标值,并通过计算评估指标值与系统评估等级之间的灰色关联度,构建不同方法下系统效能评估等级的基本概率分配,最后利用证据理论的合成规则对不同方法下系统的评估等级进行合成,从而获得系统效能的评估结论。实例验证表明,模型是有效的。

Scientific and exact evaluation for equipment maintenance support system is important for improving the shortage of system and enhancing support effectiveness. In fact, because of the uncertain information in evaluation, it is difficult to obtain exact conclusion. To counter the shortage about the uncertainty in current evaluation methods, an evaluation model based on degree of grey incidence and evidence theory is proposed. Through establishing the evaluation index system and calculating degree of grey incidence between the system condition gained with different methods and the evaluation grade of system, the basic probability assignments for evaluation grade are derived, and then the combination rule of evidence theory is used to fuse the evaluation grade in different methods for evaluation conclusion. The practical calculation result shows that the model is effective.