世界石油供应板块地缘格局及重心迁移的驱动力机制研究

The geopolitical pattern of petroleum supply plates and the driving-force system of the migration of its gravity center

本文论述了当前中东、中亚和俄罗斯、非洲、北美和中南美等石油供应基地的资源储量、生产和出口现状以及石油供应板块地缘政治格局;回顾了石油供应板块重心由墨西哥湾(北美)迁移到波斯湾(中东)的历史过程;分析了造成石油供应板块重心迁移的自然、科技、经济、政治、军事和非传统安全等驱动力因子及其驱动力机制,得出了以下结论:经过一个半世纪演变形成的以中东为中心,包括中亚、非洲在内的世界石油供应板块,成为大国争夺的焦点地区。目前的石油供应板块地缘格局是自然、经济、政治等多种因素作用下演进的结果,今后还将继续演进。这一研究对经济正在高速增长、石油消费对外依存度不断提高、石油安全形势面临严峻挑战的中国来说,具有重要而深远的意义。

The paper analyzes the reserves of oil resource and the status of oil production and exportation in the petroleum supplying bases in the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, North America, Middle and South America, and so on. In addition, it studies the geopolitical pattern of petroleum supply plates, and reviews the historical process of the migration of the center of petroleum supply plates. And the driving factors for this phenomenon such as natural, scientific, technological, economic, military and non-traditional factors are ana- lyzed in the paper. It comes to the conclusion that through one and a half century evolution, the petroleum supply plates, including Midd＇le Asian and Africa, are the focal areas in the contradiction among powerful countries. The current geopolitical pattern of petroleum supply plates is caused by various factors, with a continuous trend in the future. Hence, this study is significant and crucial value for China, where the economy grows especially rapidly, while the dependence ratio of petroleum consumption is rising and the situation of petroleum security is severe and facing with rigorous challenges.