上半年石油价格变化分析及下半年预测

Analysis of petroleum price changing in the first half year and forecast of the second half year

受全球经济波动影响,2009年上半年国际油价先跌后涨,与前几年高价相比整体步入下跌阶段。虽然近期有所恢复性上涨,但主要是由于全球流动性充裕,美元贬值和国际石油期货市场的炒作与跟风之情再现,目前国际石油市场处于供求基本平衡甚至供略大于求的局面。下半年随着全球经济逐渐好转,石油需求增加,预计下半年国际石油价格会稳中有升。

With influence of the global economic fluctuations, international oil prices during the first half of 2009 dropped down first, and gone up again. Overall price goes into the stage of dropping compared with that of previous years. Although the price rises recently, it is mainly due to ample global liquidity and appearance of the depreciation of dollar and international oil futures market speculation once again. The current interna- tional oil market is at the stage of basically balance between supply and demand and even slightly more supply than demand. As the global economic situation improving, it is expect that oil demand would increase, and the international oil prices will be steadily in the second half of 2009.