摘要
利用英国Hadley气候预测与研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS，基于政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）2000年“排放情景特别报告”（SRES）B2情景下对华南区域2071～2100年汛期（前汛期：4～6月；后汛期：7～9月）强降水的模拟结果进行分析。结果显示PRECIS对华南地区汛期强降水具有较好的模拟能力。相对1961～1990年（以下称气候基准时段），2071-2100年华南汛期的强降水比例有所增大，强降水日数变化百分数大值中心分布在广西中北部和福建省北部，后汛期大值中心主要分布在广东和福建省。对华南4省（区）除了海南岛外各省逐月变化百分数基本为正值，汛期极端降水的发生频率相比气候基准时段有明显增加。
Based on the results simulated by PRECIS （Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies）, which is developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, the changes of flood-season heavy rainfall under tthe SRES B2 scenario over South China during 2071 - 2100 are analyzed. It is shown that PRECIS has the capability to simulate flood-season severe heavy rainfall. The percentage of severe heavy rainfall to total rainfall in 2071 - 2100 would increase relative to 1961 - 1990 （the baseline）. The percentage of the number of severe rainnig days in 2071 - 2100 is analyzed, and the results show that there would be a maximum center in the central-north part of Guangxi and the northern Fujian during the earlier flood-season, and there would be a maximum center in Guangdong and Fujian during the later flood- season. The change percentage in each month during flood season is positive over South China except for Hainan. The occurrence frequency of flood-season severe precipitation events in 2071 - 2100 would increase obviously.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2009年第4期425-428,共4页
Meteorological Science and Technology
