摘要
针对采用定值相对极限位移判定隧道围岩稳定性时存在的问题,提出了采用模糊概率理论判定隧道围岩稳定的计算方法。结合厦门翔安海底隧道工程实际,利用曲线回归和模糊概率方法对海底隧道围岩稳定性概率进行了计算分析。参考现行规范并根据海底隧道各个开挖步的变形量综合确定极限相对位移上下限,采用指数函数对海底隧道CRD1部和CRD3部的拱顶下沉收敛曲线进行了回归分析。根据回归参数及实测结果,应用模糊概率公式对隧道围岩的稳定性概率进行了计算,从而为根据某个时刻的相对位移来判断海底隧道稳定性提供了参考。
When we judge the stability of rock mass of tunnels by a relative ultimate displacement discrimination method, the definition of relative ultimate displacement value is very difficult. Considering this problem, a discrimination method of fuzzy probability was put forward and this method can be used for the stability evaluation of rock mass of tunnels. The stability of subsea tunnel rock mass was analyzed and calculated by regresion analysis and fuzzy probability method combining with the practice of Xainmen Xiangan subsea tunnel engineering. An upper and down ultimate relative displacement was defined considering the current specifications and the deformation of subsea tunnel in different ex- cavation parts, and the arch crown settlement time curves of CRD1 part and CRD3 part in subsea tunnel was analyzed by an exponential function. Based on the regression parameters and actual measurement results, the stability probability of the subsea tunnel rock mass was calculated and analyzed. This research gives a reference for the analysis of stability probability of the subsea tunnel rock mass by use of measured data.
出处
《海洋工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期117-121,126,共6页
The Ocean Engineering
基金
国家海洋局专项课题资助项目(908-02-03-03)
关键词
海底隧道
围岩
稳定性
模糊概率
subsea tunnel
stability of rock mass
fuzzy probability
regression analysis
