我国股票市场与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Stock Market and Economic Growth in China

笔者利用我国1993年～2007年的时间序列数据,运用协整分析技术和格兰杰因果检验等计量分析方法,对我国股票市场与经济增长之间的关系进行分析。实证检验结果显示,我国股票市场与经济增长存在弱相关性,经济增长对股票市场发展有显著的影响,股票市场对经济增长的作用不显著。在选取的股票市场指标中,股票市场规模、交易率、筹资率对经济增长的影响显著,其他指标作用影响不显著;而经济增长对所选取的表示股票市场发展状况的指标有显著的影响。

The author makes use of the time series data from 1993 to 2007, applies cointegration analysis and Granger Causality and makes an analysis of the relationship between stock market and economic growth. The empirical test result shows that the stock market of our country is weakly correlated to economic growth. Economic growth has remarkable influence on stock market development; the effect of stock market on economic growth is not evident. Among the indexes in the stock market, the size of stock market, transaction rate and money-raising rate have remarkable influence on economic growth and the influence of other indexes is not evident. However, economic growth has obvious influence on the indexes that show the development of stock market.