基于核密度估计法的中国省区经济增长动态分析

A Dynamic Analysis of the Economic Growth on the Provincial Level in China Based on Kernel Density Estimation Method

本文应用核估计方法对1978～2007年中国省级地区经济增长动态进行了分析,通过4个时点的人均GDP分布概率密度的核估计,我们发现在我国改革的3个不同阶段,中国省级地区的增长动态不是简单线性的,经济增长表现出两极分化与中间交叉变动的混合,三大直辖市始终在前3位,而贵州则始终停留在最后1位。从长远来看,中国省际增长分布有向双峰(bimodal)分布发展的趋势,这在1999年表现非常明显。三个阶段的动态分析说明,中国区域政策在促进经济增长和协调发展中能起重要作用。

In this paper, the kernel density estimation method is applied to analyze the dynamic economic growth on the provincial level in China from 1978 to 2007. The analysis on the density distribution estimation of per capita GDP at four points of time reveals at three different stages of reform the dynamic growth of Chinag provincial - level regions is not simply linear. Economic growth shows a mix of polarization and dynamic changes. The three municipalities have always been the top three and Guizhou has alwaysbeen the last one. In the long run, the growth distribution in Chinese provincial level has the trend of bimodal distribution, which is especially obvious in 1999. The dynamic analysis of the three stages shows that Chinese regional policies can play an important role in promoting economic growth and coordinating economic development.