跨国银行进入时机选择——理论及中国市场的实证

The Entry Timing of Multinational Banks——Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Chinese Market

本文首先回顾了跨国银行在中国的发展历程,接着,本文基于实物期权理论构建了跨国银行进入的时机选择模型,并通过生存模型实证检验了跨国银行进入中国市场的时机确定及其影响因素。结果发现,跨国银行进入中国市场集中于三个阶段,且规模越大、资本量越充足及对中国市场的经验越为丰富的银行业越早进入中国市场;研究还发现,跨国银行母国对中国的投资规模越大、与中国的双边贸易额越高,跨国银行越早进入中国市场。另外,我们的研究还发现亚洲地区的银行业进入中国市场的时机选择上并没有明显的优势。

First, the paper reviews the development of multinational banks in China. Then, it sets up an entry timing choice model of foreign banks based on Real-Option theory and uses survival model to empirically analyze the timing choice of multinational banks entering Chinese market as well as the reasons for their entry. The result shows that the multinational banks＇ entry into the Chinese market occurs mainly in three stages of their development, and the more sufficient their assets, capital and experience are, the earlier they enter the Chinese market. Also, the research finds that the larger investment a multinational banks＇ home country makes in China and the higher trade volume the two countries have, the earlier it may enter the Chinese market. In addition, the empirical result shows that Asian banks do not enjoy a significant advantage in entering the Chinese market.