国家信用评级的决定因素分析

An Analysis of the Determinants of the Sovereign Credit Rating

本文提出了一个基于Ordered Probit的国家信用评级决定因素分析模型,并运用该模型实证分析了2001年至2005年92个国家标准普尔的国家信用评级数据。分析结果表明:第一,作为发达国家和发展中国家这两个不同的群体,他们的国家信用评级在决定因素上也有着明显的区别;第二,对我国来说外汇储备的迅速增长是中国信用评级上升的最主要的因素。

This paper proposes an Ordered Probit model to study the determinants of the sovereign credit rating and applies it to a data set that covers 92 sovereigns＇ S＆P sovereign credit ratings for the period of 2001 to 2005. Results show that the determinants of the sovereign credit rating of the developed countries are very different from those of the developing countries. And in addition, for China, the rapid increase in the foreign reserve is the main reason for the raise of China＇s credit rating.