都市圈交通体系整体演化模型及实证研究

A Holistic Evolution Mode and Empirical Study of Metropolitan Transportation System

都市圈交通体系是城市生态系统中的子系统,是一种复杂开放类似于耗散结构理论中的自组织系统,它的形成有一个从低级到高级的演化过程,在与内部其它种群的相互作用下最终形成比较稳定的有序结构。本文构建了都市圈交通体系整体演化模型,并对长三角都市圈中心城市上海1990～2006年交通体系整体演化及公共客运交通体系的结构演化进行了实证分析,实证的结果表明:长三角都市圈中心城市上海的交通体系整体演化呈S型螺旋状上升的轨迹,目前正处于慢速演化期的末期,正向快速演化的中期过渡;上海公共客运交通体系内部结构演化呈现出轨道交通及出租汽车占公交出行的比例逐年上升,公共汽车及轮渡占公交出行比例逐年下降的现象,目前上海公共交通体系结构正处于渐变期的演化阶段。

Metropolitan transportation system is a subsystem of urban ecosystem system, which is an open complex system similar to self-organizing system of dissipative structure theory. It has an evolution process from lower stage to higher one, and may form a more stable order structure under interaction between the other species. In this paper, we construct a holistic evolution mode of metropolitan transportation system and make an empirical analysis on global evolution of transportation system and structure evolution of the public transportation system from 1990 to 2006 in shanghai, a central city in the metropolitan region of the Yangtze River Delta. The results show that evolution orbit of shanghai transportation system is in its mature stage presenting s-type increase state similar to helical structure, At present, it is at the end of slow evolution stage changing into fast evolutionary middle stage. Internal structure evolution of the public transportation system in shanghai presents that proportion of rail transportation and taxi to the public transportation is increasing year by year, but proportion of the public automobile and ferrying service to the public transportation is decreasing year by year presenting they are in decline stage. Nowdays the structure evolution stage of public transportation system in shanghai is in its gradual stage.