中国松材线虫病空间分布格局

Spatial distribution patterns of pine wilt disease in China

应用地统计学和克里格插值方法,分析了松材线虫病在中国的空间分布结构和空间相关性。研究表明,松材线虫病在中国呈聚集分布。在全国和江苏、安徽、广东、浙江5个不同空间尺度下,半变异函数均为球形,空间依赖性距离分别可达10.1888°、3.4464°、2.1581°、3.08°和2.4376°。松材线虫病在中国有着2个明显的聚集分布区域,一个位于（30.5~32.5°N,117.7~120.5°E）,以南京为中心,包括江苏、安徽大部和浙江西北部,另一个位于（22.5~24°N,113~114.5°E）,在广东境内。松材线虫病在中国早期空间分布自然扩散模型为R=5.4743e0.4139t（R2=0.9204）。

The spatial distribution pattern of pine wilt disease was analyzed with geostatistics.The results showed that pine wilt disease was an aggregated distribution within China,at the scale of the entire country,the semivariogram function of spatial distribution can be described by a spherical model with a spatial dependence range of 10.1888°.At the provincial scale,the distribution patterns of Jiangsu,Anhui,Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces could also be described by the spherical model with spatial dependence range of 3.4464°,2.1581°,3.0800°,and 2.4376° respectively.In addition,2 aggregated distribution areas were found.One was centered in Nanjing with a range of（30.5-32.5°N,117.7-120.5°E）,which include almost all of the area of Jiangsu and Anhui provinces as well as the north-west position of Zhejiang province.The second aggregated distribution area was in Guangdong Province（22.5-24.0°N,113.0-114.5°E）.The natural distribution model of the early stage of pine wilt disease in China can be formulated as R=5.4743e0.4139t（R2=0.9204）.