广义相加模型在气温对人群死亡率影响研究中的应用

Application of General Additive Model for Studying the Effects of Air Temperature on Population Mortality

目的了解气温等气象因素对城市居民每日疾病死亡的影响特点与规律,以采取针对性的预防措施,减少因气候变化导致的居民超额死亡率。方法根据重庆市疾病预防控制中心提供的2003年1月1日至2007年12月31日的某县居民每日死亡资料和中国气象局提供的相应期间气象监测资料,采用时间序列的Poisson广义相加模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势、短期波动及双休日效应等混杂因素的基础上,分析气温、相对湿度、气压、降雨量、风速等气象因素及空气污染指数与居民每日死亡的关系。结果气温每上升1℃,超额死亡率为12%;其他混杂因子中,相对湿度每下降1%,超额死亡率为4%;空气污染指数每上升1个单位,超额死亡率为0.6%。结论气温的增加及其与相对湿度、空气污染等协同作用可导致该县居民超额死亡率的上升。

Objectives To study the impacts of air temperature and the other weather factors on the daily mortality of the residents in cities for targeting the preventive measures to decrease the excess mortality induced by climate change. Methods The daily mortality and weather surveillance data were provided by Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention and China Meteorological Bureau respectively. The correlation between the weather factors （temperature, humidity, air pressure, rainfall, wind speed） and the daily mortality of residents in a county of Chongqing were analyzed by using the Poisson GAM of time series （increased by I℃ for air temperate, decreased by 1% for relative humidity and one unit for air pollution index） adjusting for the secular trend, seasonal trend, short-term fluctuation and day of week. Results The excess mortality increased to 12% as the temperature increased I℃. The excess mortality increased to 4% and 0.6% respectively as the relative humidity decreased 1% and the air pollution index increased one unit. Conclusion High temperature, with humidity and air pollution, will cause increased excess mortality of residents in this county.