大豆食心虫灰色灾变长期预测模型的研究——以黑龙江省为例

Studies on Long Period Forecasting Models of Grey Catastrophe about the Leguminivora Glycinivorella in Heilongjiang Province

应用灰色系统理论与方法探讨大豆食心虫的长期预测,对黑龙江省双城市1991-2005年大豆食心虫发生程度构成的离散数列,建立了灰色系统GM(1,1)灾变长期预测模型,用该模型回测的历史拟合率很高。对2001年、2003年和2005年的大豆食心虫发生程度的跨年度长期预测,其结果与实际相吻合。

In this paper, grey system theory and method are used to discuss the problem of long period forecast about the leguminivora glycinivorella mats. Based on the discrete series of the occurrence degree of leguminivora glycinivorella mats in Shuangcheng, Heilongjiang province form 1991 to 2005 ,we build the long period forecasting models GM（ 1,1 ） of grey catastrophe , and from results, the ratio according with history is high. The forecasted results for the years of 2001,2003 and 2005 are completely coincided with the actual occurrence of the pest in each year.