摘要
对区域物流需求量进行合理、精确地预测,能为政府部门科学制定物流规划、合理配置物流资源提供决策支持和依据。在对影响区域物流需求的多种因素进行全面分析以及物流需求量指标合理选取的基础上,采用径向基函数神经网络构建区域物流需求量的非线性预测模型,并以四川省相关统计数据为基础,对区域物流需求量进行了预测,取得了满意的预测结果。研究表明:该预测模型较全面地反映了区域物流需求量的变化规律,预测精度较高,泛化能力强,预测结果具有较高的可信性。
Reasonable and accurate forecast of regional logistics demand can offer decision support and basis for government department to scientifically make regional logistics planning and rationally distribute logistics resources. On the basis of comprehensive analysis of the multi - factor which influence regional logistics demand and reasonable choice of indexes of regional logistics demand, we constructed a non - linear forecasting model of regional logistics demand by using radial basis function neural network , predicted the regional logistics demand of Sichuan province according to its relevant statistic data, and obtained satisfactory forecast results. Research showed that the forecasting model can reflect the change law of regional logistics demands all - roundly, with high forecast precision, strong generalization ability and high credibility.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第9期163-166,共4页
Commercial Research
关键词
区域物流需求
多因素分析
径向基函数网络
预测
regional logistics demand
multi -factor analysis
radial basis function neural network
forecast
