天气学检验在东北区域数值模式秋冬季降水预报中的应用

Application of synoptic verification in autumn and winter precipitation forecast of NWP model in Northeast China

根据影响天气系统不同,利用2007年9月—2008年2月东北区域中尺度数值模式12 h累积降水预报和东北地区常规站降水实况资料,采用天气学检验方法,从降水中心强度、中心位置、降水主体强度、落区、范围和移速6个方面对东北区域中尺度模式降水预报产品的预报性能进行检验。结果表明:模式对东北地区秋、冬季降水有较好的预报能力,但因天气系统和预报时效不同其预报能力也有较大差异,其中对高空槽预报效果最好;一般情况下,在预报出现偏差时中心和主体强度易偏强,雨带范围易偏大,移速易偏慢。

Based on 12 h cumulated precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction （NWP） model in Northeast China and rainfall observation data from September 2007 to February 2008 as well as the classification of synoptic system, precipitation forecast products were verified by synoptic verification method in terms of intensity and position of precipitation center, intensity, falling areas, ranges and moving velocity of precipitation main body. The results indicate that precipitation forecast in autumn and winter is accurate based on NWP model. Forecast ability is different because of the difference of weather system and prediction time. Forecast to upper level trough is accurate. If forecast has deviation, it shows that the intensity of center and main body are commonly stronger, precipitation belt range is larger and moving velocity is slower than that of observation.