突变点分析的应用——基于矿难分析

Chang-point and Mine Disaster on Bayes Methods Mengyong

利用矿山死亡事故变点预测模型,采用我国安全生产局数据,使用MCMC方法进行验证,探究了矿难变化的规律,分析了事故发生原因,通过对每次矿难发生数的拐点分析,说明强化舆论监督,加强法制建设,设计合理的管理机制是减少矿难的根本出路,同时也证明了该方法预测突发事件的有效性.

The article conceive mine disaster chang-point model by using Bayes approach. The thsis analyses the reason and rule disaster, and use MCMC to validate it using data of SAWS. It also show validality of this method on foreasting chang point.