唐家山堰塞湖泄洪问题的研究

The Research on Tangjiahe Mountain Barrier Lake

研究的是唐家山地震次生灾害引发的堰塞湖问题.首先对数字高程地图进行等高图像分析求解了堰塞湖不同高程水位对应的湖区面积,建立了蓄水量体积与堰塞湖水位高程的离散化模型,然后建立了神经网络模型和多元线性回归模型研究了北川降雨量与堰塞湖入库流量的关系,继而求解得到不同降雨量下每日堰塞湖水位高程.在研究泄洪过程时,首先通过对泄洪过程和溃坝过程内在机理的研究分别建立了正交多项式逼近模型和仿真模型得到溃坝时的溃口流量随时间变化的关系,继而分析求解得到溃坝时其他参数随时间变化的关系.针对淹没区的问题,综合数字高程地图和行政区域地图,利用数字地图计算了洪水到达各被淹没区域的时间,淹没范围,以便于确定撤离方案.

This paper mainly discussed the Tangjiahe mountain barrier lake caused by earthquake in Tangjiashan region. Firstly, we analyze the digital elevation map （DEM） with image analyse methods, to figure out the area of lake-coursed region in corresponded with different water depth to establish a digitalized model in water storage volume and water-depth parameter, this establish a neural network model and multiple linear regression model to study the relationship between the precipitation in Beichuan region and the follow in volume of lake. Then, circulate the water-depth of lake per day under different precipitation conditions. On the researching of flood-releasing process and dam-bursting process, then build up the orthogonal polynomial approaching model and simulation model to study the connection between other parameter with time. On the issue of flood-drown area, we combine the DEM with administrative area map, use the digital map to circulate the time and area of flood-reading destination to determine the evacuation plan.