中国经济增长对世界石油价格影响的定量研究

An Empirical Study on How Much China's Excessive Growth Would Impact World Oil Prices

本文建立了一个比较准确地估计世界石油价格变化的计量模型系统,用该模型解释中国经济高速增长对世界石油价格的冲击分析结果表明,中国经济若以8%的速度持续增长,到2010年,世界石油价格预计上涨1.7至2.3个百分点,到2030年上涨7.94至10.48个百分点。由此可见,虽然"中国因素"对世界石油价格的影响在中短期内并不突出,但从长远来看,确实对石油价格上涨有一定影响。研究表明,在经济全球化的今天,世界各国努力提高石油使用效率是降低用油成本的最佳选择。本文建立的世界石油需求与价格计量分析系统,还可应用于除石油市场以外的其它产品市场,并可定量预测某一产品需求变化给产品价格带来的波动,进而评价其对经济发展所造成的正反两方面的影响。

We develop a demand system for oil at a country level and use the aggregate demand to arrive at a price function, by which a relationship between the economic growth and oil prices is built up. After that, we simulate various scenarios to quantify what is the ＇ China factor＇ in the price of oil. The main findings of this study are ： Depending on the model employed, the ＇China factor＇ lies between 1.70 and 2.30 per cent of the price in 2010 and rises to approxi- mately 7.94 and 10.48 per cent of the price in 2030, respectively. In the short to medium term, the ＇ China factor＇ is manageable and could feasibly be compensated for. However, in the long run when car penetration rates are added to the model, the ＇ China factor＇ further worsens leading to higher oil prices. An improvement in efficiency can offset some effects of the ＇ China factor＇. More specifically, the econometric system we built is able to accurately predict the relationship between the changes in all other product markets and economic development in the world.