充满变数的2010年苏丹大选

The Variable Election in Sudan in 2010

将要来临的全国大选是苏丹政治生活的重大转折点。此次选举不仅将决定苏丹民主转型的成败,还将关乎苏丹的和平与统一前景。尽管大选延期给有关方面提供了更长的准备时间,但通往大选之路并未因之而畅通。战乱未休的达尔富尔地区能否以及怎样举行选举、执政党的全国大和苏丹人民解放运动能否继续协作以推进大选、三大反对党能否在选举中起到掣肘作用等原有不确定因素依然存在,新的不确定因素又不断出现,从而使这场期待已久的民主选举充满变数,并进而增加了苏丹未来政局的不确定性。

The coming national election will be the significant turning point of Sudan's political life.This election will not only destine the perspective of Sudan's democratic transition,but also that of Sudan's peace and unity.Although the postponement of the election has been giving more time to the relative parties to prepare,the road to election is not well presented.The uncertain factors still exist how and whether an election could be exerted in the war-torn Darfur,whether the ruling National Congress Party and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement could continually coordinate to pull forward the election,whether the three major parties could constraint each other,and some new uncertain factors are emerging,which makes the long expected election variable and throws uncertain light on the future of Sudan's political situation.