基于事故健康后果的应急疏散策略评估

Emergency evacuation policy assessment based on health consequences of accidents

依据事故的健康后果,评估应急响应策略(ERP)。将研究区域分为形状和大小各异的节点,节点之间通过连线连接,用来表示该区域的道路系统。将人员在节点间的转移作为随机过程,采用离散随机Markov模型模拟疏散者的运动。对Markov模型求解,根据平均剂量估计人员的健康后果,评估ERP的有效性。针对不同事故极端现象对人员的影响方式,根据剂量-反应关系计算疏散过程中人员受到的健康影响(死亡或受伤等),得出事故的健康后果。依据不同ERP的健康后果来评价其优劣,优化应急策略。

The present article is dedicated to the study and finding of proper emergency evacuation policy assessment methods based on health consequences of accidents. As is known, it is often the case that is likely to bring about many adverse effects, which may not only lead to human casualty or threaten the normal life of the local people, but also bring damage to the local environment. It is just for this reason that it is of urgent need to reduce the casualty and property loss likely to be caused .by such accidents. In so doing, the first step is to predict ways on how to mitigate such adverse effects so as for the local people to avoid or at least partly or whole get rid of the ensuing extreme phenomena （such as fallout, toxic clouds, thermal radiation, overpressure, fragments, etc）. For this purpose, emergency response policy （ERP） and corresponding protection measures should be taken so as to relieve the local people of the unexpected losses. In so doing, this paper has introduced a discrete state stochastic Markov process to the simulation of the movement of the evacuees in the supposed events. The study area can be divided into nodes with different shapes and sizes, as well as the links that may connect the nodes. Transitions from node In node have also been simulated as a random process in which the probability of transitions is dependent on the dynamically changing situations of the destination and the starting nodes and may also be mutually related. Solution to the Markov proeess can provide the expected distribution of the evacuees in the nodes of the area as a function of time. Then, according to the way on how the extreme phenomena impact individual and the dose - response relation, it is possible to deduce the effects in the form of casualty or property loss likely to be caused to the local people. And, finally, different emergency response policies can be made as a result of the evaluation optimization.