连云港公众对核电和火电风险感知的比较分析

Comparative analysis of the different risk-awareness to the nuclear power generation and that by using coal in Lianyungang citizen

研究造成不同人群对核电和火电风险感知差异的关键因素,并分析不同人群对这2种风险支付意愿(WTP)的差别。采用公众问卷调研法及多元统计法分析公众对核电和火电的风险感知。结果表明,年龄为30～39岁的人群以及教育程度为大专和研究生学历的人群对核电和火电的风险感知差别度具有显著差异性,同时也发现政府在人们对比核电和火电风险感知程度时扮演重要角色,即对政府信任度高的人对核电的风险感知度相对较低。风险支付意愿分析表明,不同分类人群对核电和火电风险的WTP值总体趋势一致,即女性高于男性,低龄组和高龄组高于中龄组,无业者和家庭主妇高于有固定职业者,受中等教育者高于受低等和高等教育者,30 000～50 000元年薪者高于其他年薪段人,外地游客高于移居者和本土居民。本研究为政府等决策机构选择有效目标人群提供了参考依据。

This study is aimed to introduce our investigation and analysis results of the public risk perceptions and willingness to pay （WTP） as to the nuclear- and coal-power generation projects in Lianyungang City and its surrounding areas based on a poll and questionnaire response. The survey and multivariate statistical method is used by us in a questionnaire survey of 350 respondents （ the true response rate is 85.7 % ）. It is known that ＂Tianwan＂ nuclear power plant was on operation since 2007 in Lianyungang, a coastal city, Jiangsu. In addition to the demographic variables （sex, age, educational attainment, employment and residence condition）, the questionnaire included items for measuring opinions concerning comparison of the risk perception, benefit perception, acceptability and trust rate as to nuclear power and coal power. All items were accounted on a 5- point scale with the purpose to explore the predominant factors that may affect individual risk perceptions to the two forms of energy pro- duction and then compare the difference of WTPs of the two kinds of risk among various groups of the social public. According to the statistical analysis of T test, the WTP values of nuclear power and coal power in this research are significantly different （F = 0. 105, t（600） =2.873, p =0.004）. The maximum WTP of coal power is about RMB 2 400 per month, while the ideal WTP of nuclear power is actually far above RMB 3 000 per month. Demographic analysis shows that age （between 30 and 39 years old） and education backgrounds （college and postgraduate） are significant to some special groups of the public. The analysis finds that there are some significant differences among risk perceptions of various groups. The results also show that people who trust in the government would have lower risk perception of nuclear power than coal power. It indicates that the public place a great hope to the government role in this connection, expecting the govemments would make great efforts to improve their honesty, openness, and trustworthiness for the public. In the meanwhile, WTPs of the women group were found to have higher perceptions than men, with that of the youngsters＇ group and the ageing group higher than middle aged one. Moreover, it was found that the citizens with no regular jobs and the housewives share higher WTP than the employed group. In a word, the study results above are expected to help the policy-makers to choose the right attitudes to the likely risk-involving problems and keep better communication and initiate necessary public education programs.