我国东部季风区冬季气温的气候变暖特征

The Climatic Variety and Anomaly of the Winter Mean Air Temperature of the East Monsoon Area in China

利用我国东部季风区375个测站1961—2006年平均地面气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、EOF,REOF,Mann-Kendall、小波分析等方法,分析了季风区冬季气温异常变化规律。结果表明:我国东部季风区冬季气温增温明显,近46年增温率为0.39℃/10a,增温率从南向北增大,黄河南部气温的稳定性高于北部,增温不显著的区域主要在季风区的南部,川东和云南局部有显著的下降趋势。根据REOF分析将该区冬季气温异常细分为南、中、北部区3个分区,各区气温异常变化存在准5年和22年周期,从20世纪70年代初期开始气温转为上升,普遍在1986—1987年发生了突变,在21世纪初气温开始回落。异常偏暖年大部分出现在1990年以后。

Spatial anomaly features and time evolution rule of the winter mean air temperature in China＇s east monsoon area are analyzed using data from 375 stations over the years of 1961 2006, adopting the methods of linear regression analysis, multinomial fitting, EOF, REOF, Mann-Kendall, Glide t-examination, Wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis etc. The incalescence rate is 0.39 ℃/10 a in the recent 46 years, and the annual maxim incalescence occurs in February. The air temperature has taken on an increment trend since 1971. There is a remarkable mutation in 1987 and from then the air temperature reached to a more remarkable warmer period,then the temperature slightly dropped at the beginning of this century. The stability of winter temperature to the north of yellow river is higher than the south. The change of air temperature in most of the regions takes on an obvious uptrend. The inealescence rate increased from south to north. The areas where the getting-warmer trend is inconspicuous are mainly to the south of monsoon area. Using the EOF method analysis, the abnormity of winter mean air temperature in monsoon area of east of China is divided into two common distributive modes： The all area unanimous model and the quasi north and south difference model. Using the REOF method analysis, the area can be divided into 3 sub-areas： The south, the middle and the north monsoon areas. Temperature of the monsoon area is mainly of the all area unanimous model. In the whole areas, 80% of the top-ten warmer years are later than 1990. The exceptional change of air temperature is periodical with a cycle of about 5 years and a cycle of 22 years. Air temperature has turned in to rise in the early years of 1970s in each area, and there is a generally remarkable mutation during 1986--1987.