基于计算机仿真的火灾时人员安全疏散可靠度分析

Reliability Analysis of Evacuees′ Evacuation Safety in Fire Based on the Computer Simulation Method

火灾中的人员疏散是个复杂的过程,受到诸多因素的共同影响,传统的人员疏散可靠度分析常常忽略这些因素之间的相互作用。为更准确地计算出火灾中人员疏散的可靠度,本文以某地铁车站为例,借助人员疏散仿真软件buildingEXODUS与火灾模拟程序FDS,分别得到人员所需安全疏散时间(RSET)和可利用安全疏散时间(ASET)。在此基础上,构造人员安全疏散极限状态方程,利用一次二阶矩理论求得安全疏散可靠概率。由于能够较好地反映疏散过程中各影响因素之间的相互作用,因此,采用本文提出的可靠度分析方法能够得到更合理的结果。

Occupant evacuation in fire is a complex process, which is affected by many factors. The effects between the factors are always neglected during the traditional analysis of reliable probability of safety evacuation. In order to obtain more accurate results, with the help of buildingEXODUS and FDS, the crowd evacuation aim at a subway station is simulated and analyzed. And the required safety evacuation time （RSET） and available safety evacuation time （ASET） are calculated respectively. Based on the above research, the limit state equation of evacuees＇ safety evacuation is built. After that, the reliable probability of safety evacuation is obtained by first-order second-moment method. Because the effects between each influential parameters of evacuees＇ evacuation are reflected better, the proposed approach is of high accuracy.