预测聚合物驱油田产量的两种方法的对比

The Comparison between Two Methods of Predicting Oil Production in Polymer-Flooding Oilfields

在分析大量油田动态指标预测方法及聚合物驱影响因素的基础上,对适合于聚合物驱油田开发指标的预测方法进行了深入研究,并结合大庆油田杏四-六面积北部区块注聚合物驱的实际资料,应用物质平衡法和预测模型法对该区块的产油量进行了预测。结果表明：物质平衡法可以对聚合物驱整个过程进行预测,其优点是计算速度快、精度高,缺点是需要的参数多,对后续水驱阶段预测有一些偏差;在聚合物驱开发初期,两种预测模型法的误差偏大,达到最高月产油量后,预测误差较小,表明在含水稳定阶段和含水回升阶段预测模型法的应用效果较好;物质平衡法优于模型法,其平均误差为2.05%,而两种模型法预测的平均误差分别为4.61%、3.73%。总体来说,两种方法都满足生产的需要。

On the basis of analyzing a large number of methods of predicting oilfield dynamic indicators and factors affecting polymer flooding operations, predictions, oilfield dynamic indicator suitable for polymer flooding was investigated in detail. Oil production was predicted using material balance method and prediction model method using actual data of two polymer-flooding blocks in Daqing oilfield. The results indicate that the material balance method can predict the whole polymer flooding process fast and with higher accuracy, while it needs more parameters and deviates in predicting the water flooding after polymer flooding. The prediction model methods deviate relatively large in initial stage of polymer flooding, then is relatively small after the highest oil rate obtained. It indicates that the prediction model methods are more suitable in the phase of steady water-cut and rising water-cut. The material balance method is better than prediction model methods and the average error is 2.05 %. While the average error of these two prediction methods are 4.61% and 3. 730%separately. In general, both methods meet requirements of oilfield development.