大国经济的周期波动特征分析

Analysis on Periodic Fluctuation Features of Big Nations’Economy

近三十年来,美、中、印、巴、俄等大国的经济周期波动有其自身的特点,从经济周期的波动形态上来说,各国均存在较大的差别。但是,从大国经济周期的统计特征来看,这些国家的经济周期特征又有着较高的一致性。从内部特征来看,由于各国进出口、消费、投资等主要指标在经济总量中所占比重区别较大,各国经济周期的内部特征明显不同,但是各国经济周期受海外市场波动的影响在扩大。

Over recent 30 years, big nations hke the United States, China, India, Brazil and Russia have formed their own periodic fluctuation features. There are large differences among them from the perspective of fluctuation state; while they share relatively high consistency from the perspective of statistical features. Seen from the perspective of the internal features, the internal features of these nations＇ business cycles are obviously different, since there are big differences on the ratio of the main index such as import ＆ export, consumption, investment to the GDP, At the same time, the effects that the overseas market fluctuation on these nations＇ business cycles are increasingly large.