灾害风险评估中原始数据模糊不确定性的处理方法

A Method of Handling Fuzzy Uncertainty of Data in Disaster Risk Assessment

针对灾害风险评估中原始数据本身的模糊不确定性问题,提出了一种模糊信息粒化描述方法,它的特点是能够容忍不精确、不确定以及部分真实信息,不需要任何额外的假设和参数的统计分布,不需提供问题所需处理的数据之外的任何先验信息,操作比较简单而且透明,为合理描述数据的模糊不确定性提供了重要的理论和方法,有助于提高对系统的认识能力。最后,从理论和应用两个方面与已有的不确定性方法进行了比较,从而验证了笔者提出方法的优越性。

In this paper,for fuzzy uncertainty of data in disaster risk assessment,we suggested a method to granule the information.Its characteristics lie in exploiting the tolerance for imprecision,uncertainty and partial truth to achieve tractability,robustness,low solution cost and better support with reality.Its operation is simpler and more transparent compared with other methods.It provides an important theory and method to describe fuzzy uncertainty of data.In addition,theoretically,we discussed the benefits of suggested method by their representations based on probability and rough set. A simple application of estimating isoseismal area in disaster risk assessment fully demonstrates these advantages.