基于灰色马尔可夫模型的专利申请量增长率预测

Predication of Increasing Rate of Patents Received Based on Grey Markov Chain

由于专利申请量年平均增长率受多种因素的影响,本文把专利申请量年平均增长率的变化过程视为一随机过程,将灰色系统理论与离散状态的马尔可夫链相结合,提出了专利申请量年平均增长率变化过程的灰色马尔可夫预测模型。在状态划分过程中,采用均值-标准差分级法进行指标分级与状态划分,在实例分析中,把11年的专利申请量年平均增长率资料划分成五种状态。预测分析结果表明,利用灰色马尔可夫预测模型进行专利申请量年平均增长率的变化过程预测是可行的。

The increasing rate of patents received is affected by several factors,and is high nonlinear.According to the stochastic process of increasing rate of patents received,a grey Markov chain model is presented by means of combining grey system theory with dispersed Markov chain theory.The mean and standard deviation of information series are taken as the classification standard of precipitation states,and the past 11 years are classified into five classes according to the precipitation data.The predication results show that the model is feasible.