基于信息熵的中国能源消费动态及其影响因素分析

The Dynamic Analysis on the Energy Resource in China Based on Shannon’s Entropy and Its Countermeasures

能源是一个国家经济发展的物质基础,能源数量的短缺以及能源结构的不合理将直接制约着国家经济的发展和安全。随着经济的持续高速增长,工业化和城镇化进程加快,产业结构和消费结构升级以及一些高耗能生产和生活行为的过度扩张,对能源的需求大幅度增长,能源行业处于快速发展阶段。能源需求量逐年上升,我国已经成为从继美国之后的全球第二大能源消耗国。本文把信息熵、均衡度、优势度的数学方法引入能源结构领域,对我国1991年~2006年能源消费情况做了数量和结构上的动态分析。研究结果表明：①我国的能源消费需求总量逐年上升;②能源消费与能源生产之间的差值呈逐年扩大的趋势;能源消费结构中,煤炭比例在缓慢下降,石油、天然气和电力的比例在逐渐上升;③能源消费结构信息熵1991年～2002年处于上升的趋势,2003年～2006年略低于2002年,但总体上变化不大,均衡度缓慢上升,这说明我国能源消费结构的变化不明显,仍然是以煤炭为主,但结构逐渐在向多元化、合理化的方向发展。本文从这3个方面选取了1991年～2006年的人均GDP、第二产业产值比重、第三产业产值比重、建筑业产值比重、交通运输业产值比重、批发零售业产值比重、研究与实验经费比重、专利申请授权数、科技活动人员数量9个影响能源消费结构的主要因子,利用spss软件进行了主成分分析,研究结果表明：经济发展水平、技术进步、产业结构对能源消费结构的影响至关重要。在今后的发展中应通过采取转变产业结构、加大科技投入、节约能源、开发利用新能源等措施来调整能源结构,确保我国能源的安全。

The energy source is the base for the economic development of a country, the shortage of energy as well as the unreasonable energy structure will directly affect the economy development and national security, With the fast economic development, accelerating industrialization and urbanization, upgraded industrial structure and consumption pattern, there is overexpansion in high energy-consuming production and lifestyle; therefore the demand for energy increase largely, bringing energy industry into development. The energy demand in China keep rising year by year and till now, China has become the second largest energy consumer in the world, ranking right behind the US. In this paper, some mathematical methods such as Shannon＇ s entropy, balance degree as well as degree of dominance are employed in the study of energy structure. These methods are used to analyze quantitative and structural changes in both the production and the consumption of energy from 1991 to 2006. The results show that： 1） there is an annual increase in the total energy demand in China and the gap between demand and supply is enlarging; 2） In term of energy consumption structure, the proportion of coal consumption is declining slowly, while the proportions of petroleum, natural gas and electric power are growing. The Shannon＇ s entropies of consumption structure show a rising trend between 1991 and 2002, while those between 2003 and 2006 are lower than the peak in 2002. On a whole, the change is mild and the balance degree has risen slightly, indicating that the change in energy structure isn＇t significant and coal resource still plays a major role. However, the structure is developing towards a more diversified and reasonable direction. Nine influencing factors of three aspects are selected to carry out the analysis in SPSS software. These factors are the GDP per capita, the output value proportion of the second and third industry, of the architecture industry, of the wholesale retail trade, the research and experimental funds proportion, the number of patented claim authorization, the number of people involving in scientific and technological activities from 1991 to 2006. The result indicates that the level of economic development, technological progress and industrial structure greatly influence the energy consumption structure. In future development, measures such as improving industrial structure, increasing the investment in science and technology, energy conservation and the development and use of new energy should be adopted to optimize the energy structure and ensure the national security.