广州市土地资源安全预警及耕地安全警度判定

Study on the Pre-warning System Frame of Land Security and Evacuation on Alert Degree of Cultivated land in Guangzhou City

土地资源安全作为国家安全体系的重要组成部分,已经成为土地科学研究的热点问题。本文通过总结国内外土地资源安全预警研究的进展,从土地资源安全预警的概念出发,提出了广州市土地资源安全预警研究的总体思路及主要问题,为后继研究提供借鉴意义。然后,以广州市耕地安全为例进行实证研究,采用目标预警法计算1990年～2005年广州市耕地安全度,并利用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测2015年和2020年耕地安全度并划分其预警级别,结果表明:广州市1991年耕地安全度为-1.97,2005年为-2.12,总体呈不规则下降趋势,其动态拟合方程为Y=-3.096exp(-0.063694)t+3.096,预测出广州市2015年耕地安全度为-1.4585,2020年耕地安全度为-1.9051,均属于巨警级别,安全形势不容乐观,在不同的预警级别中应采取不同的对策措施。

In the recent years, with the fast development of economy and industrialization in Guangzhou, there is a growing imbalance between land resources and human activities, and the question of land security comes into focus, since it may threaten the sustainable development of the society and economy. As an important component of national security, land security is concerned by any country in the world; however, there are only a few related research currently, especially the one in proper recognition of the evaluation and prewarning of urban land security. Till now, urban land security can not to be evaluated objectively and quantitatively, so the thorough research about the coupling relationship between land use systems and human activities is not performed effectively. This may affect the land security and the security of national resources. Therefore, not only is it of great significance in theory and in practice to carry out the evaluation and prewarning research of regional land security, it also meets the demand on constructional strategies for national security and social research. The main purpose of this article is to discuss the construction of prewarning system for land security through probing into correlative literature. This paper first defines land security prewarning and then focuses on the overall plan and the main problems in the research of Guangzhou＇ land security. In this paper, a cultivated land dynamic prewarning model is established, which calculates the cultivated land alert level to reflect the safeguard state from 1990-2005 in Guangzhou. A new equation is simulated by using the results from GM （1, 1） model, which is Y=-3.096exp （-0.063694t） ＋3.096. It can be forecasted that the cultivated land security degree would be -1.4585 in 2015 and -1.9051 in 2020, both of which are high levels of alert. It is indicated that the situation of cultivated land security in Guangzhou is becoming worse and different measures are needed to counteract. At the same time, the rational use and protection of cultivated land are also good ways to reduce the pressure of cultivated land shortage.