论汶川8.0级地震前的地震活动及趋势估计问题

Discussion on the seismicity and seismic tendency of Sichuan Province before the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake

本文对汶川8.0级地震前南北地震带大震轮回、首发大震、地震平静或空区、地震条带等地震活动图像在震前分析的基础上就地震预测问题进行了思考。地震活动图像在蕴震过程或阶段的估计只能是背景或中期预测的意义。同时指出区域地震活动图像在大范围多构造区的蕴震态分析中的复杂性。

Seismic periodicities, first occurring earthquakes, seismic quiet periods and seismic gaps along the north-south seismic belts of China before the 2008 Wenchuan MS. 0 Earthquake are discussed. Based on the imagines of seismic belts and seismicities before the 2008 Wenchuan MS. 0 Earthquake, we reconsider the problems of the earthquake forecasting. We think that the procession and estimation of an earthquake preparation based on the seismicity imagines are of background and middle-term. And we point out that the procession and estimation of an earthquake preparation based on the seismicity distributed over large areas of geological structure are complicated.