人民币汇率变动与广东省FDI利用关系的实证研究

Empirical Analysis on Interaction between RMB Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in Guangdong Province

本文利用协整分析和误差修正模型,从长期和短期分析了人民币名义汇率和实际汇率分别与广东省外商直接投资之间的均衡关系。结果发现,从长期来看,人民币实际汇率的波动对外商直接投资的影响远大于名义汇率波动所带来的影响;而短期内则刚好相反。名义汇率和实际汇率的波动均是外商直接投资变化的原因;人民币汇率无论是名义贬值还是实际贬值都能够促进外商直接投资的流入。

This paper investigates the long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship between the RMB exchange rate and FDI in Guangdong Province. The results show that the impact of the RMB real exchange rate on the foreign direct investment is greater than the nominal exchange rate in the long term, while in the short-term is exactly the opposite. It also indicates that both of the nominal and real exchange rates are the Granger cause of FDI, and the devaluation of RMB real and nominal exchange rate has effects on the FDI inflows.