形势严峻超预期行情回暖时可待——国际造船市场2009年上半年回顾与展望

Situation Becomes More Severe than Expected but Market Recovery is Likely Review and Expectation ofInternational Shipbuilding Market in the First Half of 2009

受造船产业链系统风险释放影响，2009年上半年国际造船市场继续延续去年10月份以来的低迷态势．但再坏的市场，需求终归存在，如果下半年世界经济能有效改善．航运市场能止跌企稳。不排除新船需求最早会在明年春季出现“回暖”的可能性。

Influenced by the system risk released from shipbuilding industry chain, the international shipbuilding market in the first half of 2009 continued in downturn that started from October of 2008. If shipping market could stop falling and keep stable in the second half of this year, it will not become impossible that newbuilding market will recover as early as next spring.