CO_2浓度增加对西北太平洋热带风暴气候特征的影响

Influence of increasing CO_2 concentration on Northwestern Pacific tropical storm climatology

为了研究CO2浓度变化对西北太平洋热带风暴气候特征的影响,采用全球大气海洋耦合环流模式GFDL CM2.1 3个CO2排放情景下的数值试验资料,提出了适合模式的识别模式热带风暴的标准,并采用NCEP再分析资料和年鉴资料检验了标准的合理性,分析了模式热带风暴在CO2浓度增加后气候特征的变化。结果表明,所提标准是合理的,所识别的模式热带风暴在暖心平均结构等方面与NCEP热带风暴平均结构相似性高;CO2浓度增加后,模式热带风暴频数减少,强度增强,强热带风暴增多,主要源地和活动地区西移,季节分布和持续时间的分布形势没有明显变化。

To research the influence of increasing CO2 concentration on the climatic characteristics of tropical storms in the Northwestern Pacific basin, data from the three twenty-year experiments of the GFDL CM2.1 coupled climate model namely 20C3M, 1 % to 2X and 1 %to 4X respectively were used. The tropical storm detection algorithm was presented considering the model characteristics, and tested using NCEP reanalysis data and observed tropical storms data. Results show that the algorithm is reasonable, and the mean structure is consistent with that of the tropical storms analyzed with NCEP data. In the CO2 experiments, when the frequency of the tropical storm decreases, the geographical distribution of the tropical storm genesis and track density develops further west, the intensity and the number of the intense model tropical storms increases, and there is no significant change in active seasons and lifetime.