基于相对资源承载力的广东省区域人口问题研究

Research on the Regional Population Issue of GuangDong Province on Relative Carrying Capacity of Resources

相对资源人口承载力的测算,能够比较科学地分析研究区相对于参照区的人口发展状态,为研究区制定人口战略、政策提供参考。对相对资源人口承载力测算模型进行改进,引入相对资源人口承载压力指数。选取1997-2007年广东省及21个地级以上区域相对资源人口承载力数据,运用改进后的相对资源人口承载力几何模型和优化的指标,对广东省21个地级以上区域相对资源人口承载力进行分析。结果显示,对于相对资源人口承载力及承载压力的测算,指标匹配的全面性、复合性、协调性,模型的客观程度决定测算的科学与否。广东省21个地级以上区域,人口承载压力总体比较大,珠三角、东翼多数区域人口承载压力呈增大趋势;西翼、粤北山区人口承载压力呈减弱趋势;除广州外,其它区域人口承载压力,相对广东远小于相对全国。

Measuring ement of the population carrying capacity of relative resources can analyze sis the population development of the study area and reference area in a Scientific way,make a reference to formulating the population strategy and policy in study area.Improve the measurement model of the population carrying capacity of relative resources, resources, pull in the population pressure on the relative load index.Select the resource capacity datas of the entire country , 21 prefectural-level regional and Guangdong province from 1997 to 2007.Analysis the resource capacity of 21 prefectural-level regional in Guangdong province by using geometric model of relative carrying capacity of resources and optimization index.The results showed that, the measurement of population carrying capacity of relative resources and bearing pressure,the measurement is depends on the comprehensive, compound, coordination and model objective of matching indicators.In 21 prefectural-Level regional and Guangdong province, bearing pressure of population is large, PRD and the eastern part of Guangdong province,bearing pressure on the regional population is growing high;the northern and western part of Guangdong province, bearing pressure on the regional population is growing low;the bearing pressure on the regional population is far less than the whole country besides GuangZhou.