中粮、蒙牛“联姻”对中国乳业发展的影响

The influence of the union of COFCO and Mengniu on China dairy industry

7月初，中粮集团联合厚朴投资共同组建一家新投资公司（中粮持股70％，厚朴投资持股30％）投资61亿港币收购了蒙牛公司20％的股权，该新投资公司成为蒙牛第一大股东，中粮集团终于了却了多年来一直想进军乳业市场的心愿，蒙牛也在经受“三聚氰胺”事件及后续的特仑苏OMP造骨蛋白事件等系列事件的冲击后成功“嫁”入国企豪门。

On July, COFCO Limited announced jointly invest 6.1 billion HKD with Hopu Investment Management (Hopu), to acquire 20 percent of Meng Niu shares. COFCO finally fulfills the wish of entering dairy market. Mengniu is also united to the influential state-owned enterprise. The two parts both claim that the cooperation will not impact on China dairy industry very much. Some professionals also agree. However, the author has different opinion. The alliance between COFCO and Mengniu is likely to shake the industry strongly and continuously and finally impacts on the structure of China dairy industry, which would be shown in two aspects as following: Market will return to most severe competition The melamine incident severely impacts on China dairy industry that has not completely recovered yet. Although certain middle and small sized enterprises are involved to some extent, Mengniu and Yili are impacted most. Compared with the large enterprises under recovering period, a number or regional dairy manufacturers keep developing with over 30% increase rate, certain even exceed 40% in this year. There are three reasons. First, after the scandal exposed to the public, the consumers' confidence declines and the sales value falls; Second, recalling the contaminated products caused a great loss, the enterprises finance is seriously impacted and thus they can hardly invest a large sum to recover consumers confidence. As a result, the sales volume recovers slowly; Third, all the sales people are engaged to deal with the emergency after the incident broke out, the sale ability is confined. Although Mengniu does not admit the situation of shortage of money, professionals in dairy industry particularly the sales people can observe the contrast between Mengniu's investment on marketing before and after the scandal. Obviously, we can not say that Mengniu is not under financial pressure at all. Therefore, the situation leaves many opportunities for middle and small sized dairy enterprises. Mengniu has super ability to operate marketing. The ability is confined temporarily, but as long as the sufficient conditions are obtained, the ability can continue to be used. This time, COFCO invests a huge sum to Mengniu and promise not to interfere its management. With the adequate investment to market, Mengniu's confined ability to operate marketing can be released fully. Therefore, with the support of COFCO, Mengniu is likely to counterattack its rivals severely. Raw milk will be improved overall In developed countries, the dairy manufacturers usually enhance the competency by improving their ability to control raw milk. In China, some people once emphasized that the one can win in the market is the one can control raw milk. But not many dairy enterprises took this serious before, because the milk powder can be used as alternative of raw milk. However, after melamine incident broke out, China issued a series of regulations, the requirements for raw milk supply and quality become increasingly strict. Eventually, the manufacturers having advantage in raw milk supply can be benefited in market competition. At the infant stage of development, Mengniu used the strategy Market First Factory Second. However, with continuously developing and particularly after the incident broke out, Mengniu has clearly realized the significance of raw milk. People of Mengniu also said that the company has been constructing raw milk production base since the end of last year. However, Mengniu is just impacted by the a series of incidents. Undoubtedly, it can hardly invest a large sum to the program of raw milk. The investment of COFCO is exactly a strong support to Mengniu. As a state-owned enterprise with large size, COFCO is also able to offer support to Mengniu in financing. Mengniu is conditioned to take great efforts to construct raw milk production base. We believe that Mengniu will invest more to raw milk production improvement. If Mengniu, Yili, Bright Dairy and other leading enterprises are all carrying out programs of raw milk production, especially the one who once emphasized marketing over production, the other dairy manufacturers dare not ignore raw milk improvement. Consequently, the tide of constructing raw milk production base in China is around corner.